Vehicle Power
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Vehicle Electrification: Market Forces and Demand Characteristics, First Edition ||| Market Research Report
Topics Covered Include:
• Application Trends by Vehicle Type
• Electrification Architectures
• Infrastructure Implications
• Business and Cost Analysis
• Technology Trends
• Standards and Regulations
A study done by the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, found that a total of 573,681 hybrid vehicles (cars and small trucks) were sold in the United States from December 1999 through August 2006 Their study projected roughly 800,000 units in 2010, and 2 million in 2015 The market for vehicle electrification goes beyond "consumer" transportation, however, and includes a number of applications that are already primarily electric (such as golf carts and forklifts) It also includes vehicles that are starting to adopt hybrid and electric powertrains, such as buses
The level of hybrid electrification among vehicle types varies among application and classes, with most architectures based on either the series or parallel hybrid configurations With the increased attention on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids, more companies are expected to offer hybrid powertrains, along with related components and modules
Most of the work related to the impact of vehicle electrification on the power infrastructure has focused on plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) Numerous assessments have supported an optimistic outlook for the impact of PHEVs on the existing grid The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Electric Power Research Institute are examining demands to the existing electricity grid in the US, and what technologies need to be incorporated into the vehicles themselves General Motors and Ford partnerships have been announced, with others planned
Still, issues remain for power supply components used in HEVs Reliability, including dual cooling and thermal management; system integration; battery management; and power electronics challenges, including dc-dc converters/inverters, EMI, resistor grids and transient smoothing, are still being addressed
Finally, formal safety and performance standards apply to HEVs and related systems Those standards fall under two broad categories: government regulations and industry standards such as those issued by the Society of Automotive Engineers Standards related specifically to HEVs and PHEVs are still few and are expected to emerge over the next few years In some cases, they are likely to be added to existing standards
Executive Summary
Vehicle electrification is a broad term that typically involves the incorporation of efficient electric motors to displace conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) power Vehicle electrification may involve simply replacing inefficient belt and gear driven under-the-hood auxiliaries (pumps, heating/air conditioning, cooling fans, etc) with efficient electric-powered ones It can also combine electric propulsion with ICEs in various parallel, series, and plug-in hybrid configurations to increase efficiencies, or eliminate the ICE entirely by replacing it with full electric propulsion, such as in a battery- or fuel cell-powered vehicle Generally, as vehicle power becomes more electric, fuel efficiency improves and cost and complexity increases Due to fuel prices, vehicle makers are finding it much more feasible to justify electrification, particularly when other benefits are considered
This report looks at both emerging hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) and plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV) electric propulsion technologies, along with trends in the battery chemistries used with them It also examines some of the issues related to infrastructure development for PHEVs, in particular Although passenger cars get a lot of the press related to these vehicles, some of the better opportunities will be found in commercial, off-road and small, task-oriented vehicles In these cases, fleet managers and operators will be evaluating the costs and benefits of HEVs and PHEVs, so a cost analysis is also included in this study
The number of hybrid car sales in North America is expected to double in the next three years, according to RL Polk & Company, an auto industry market research firm Polk forecasts that more than one in 20 new vehicles sold in the US and Canada will have a hybrid gas-electric powertrain by 2012 That is a growth from 28% in 2008 to 53% in 2012 Europe will grow even more quickly, from one-half percent in 2008 to 50% in 2012, due to more environmental and regulatory pressures Much of the growth in Europe is coming from the Toyota Prius Polk believes that hybrids will continue to sell, even with drops in fuel prices and the current downturn in auto sales "The meltdown will translate to lower quantities because of a lower market base, but given the attention on fuel efficiency, base demand will increase," according to the report
Five years ago, 99% of global hybrid sales were from the US, Canada, Japan, UK and France Today, the hybrid market has spread to nearly 50 countries, with dramatic growth in the Netherlands, Greece and Israel Nissan Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co foresee a big push by automakers to bring pure electric vehicles to market, predicting that 10% of all vehicles globally will be electric by 2020
While passenger vehicles appear to dominate the discussion in the press, the Commercial/Fleet Vehicle segment is the most targeted application for vehicle electrification, particularly buses Many companies are also going after the "heavy-duty" segments, which includes both Heavy Duty Trucks and Agriculture/Construction/Forestry Vehicles The most mature of the existing markets for electrification is the small, task-oriented vehicle (STOV) market (including Off-Road Utility Vehicles and Turf Care) The STOV market relies more on electric architectures as an alternative to ICEs, like the companies that do golf carts and forklifts The hybrid-electric bus market is coming out it its "emerging" status, with companies beginning to lock down contracts
Heavy Duty Trucks and Commercial/Fleet Vehicles are good, but longer-term, market opportunities Buses are the most mature portion of the Commercial/Fleet Vehicle segment Truck stop electrification is pushing heavy duty truck manufacturers to consider alternatives that increase fuel efficiency, reduce engine size, reduce maintenance costs, extend engine life, and reduce emissions Companies interested in this market should look at vehicles with varying loads and start-stop characteristics, such as long-haul cargo, public transport, delivery and utility (eg cleaning and refuse trucks) This market will require pragmatic arguments for vehicle electrification, including cost savings and incentives Knowledge of government regulations is important
With hybrid-electric vehicles, rapid software integration is just as important as rapid hardware development Optimizing system management software can be a major contributor to lower overall system costs Selecting the correct control strategy and system management software enables the system to deliver the desired level of system performance with the least-cost hardware solution
System integration capabilities are a differentiator in these markets Heavy hybrid vehicles will require inexpensive, lightweight, and simplified power electronics that can be easily integrated into heavy hybrid approaches and systems In particular, small-volume power electronics with higher durability and reliability are needed to control voltage, frequency, switching timing, and state-of-charge conditions and manage system power outputs from the prime mover, electric motors, and auxiliary power units One feature that has a significant impact on cost is whether or not the dc-dc converter is integrated into the other power electronics, most likely along with the inverter in an HEV or if the dc-dc converter is a standalone, independent
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